Live tip — posted before kick-off
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Portsmouth vs Derby County
EFL Championship · Fratton Park · Mon 16 Mar · KO 20:00 GMT · Sky Sports Football
Kick-off in
🔴 MATCH IS LIVE
Why this tip: Both sides arrive battered by injuries but highly open defensively. Portsmouth are winless in their last four, conceding in 9 of their last 10 home matches. Derby haven't kept a clean sheet in five games and their third-choice goalkeeper Richard O'Donnell starts after both first and second choice are ruled out. BTTS has landed in 5 of Pompey's last 6 outings and in 79% of all H2H meetings. Derby's away record shows Over 1.5 goals in 81% of away fixtures this season. With a 94% model probability of at least one goal being scored before full-time, the first-half line at these odds represents strong value — both sides push forward early to settle nerves in a high-stakes relegation/promotion clash.